Summer will be cooler and rainier than normal, with the hottest periods in early to mid-July and mid- to late August. September and October will be warmer and rainier than normal. Skip to main content. You are here Home » Weather » Long Range. So what does that mean exactly? Will we be seeing the first heavy snow by the time Halloween rolls around? Will any pre-holiday plans be affected by difficult travel and dangerous lake-effect snow?
OR, have we just grown accustomed to much gentler Decembers in most recent years, and will the end of this fall in Ontario be more "typical" in terms of the normal weather for that time of year? In this exclusive feature, we wanted to get right to the bottom of it all, asking Dr. Gillham first hand to explain how the seasonal forecasting works, and why this year might signal an earlier arrival to the winter weather in Ontario.
Read on for every detail to these burning questions, below. When you say warmer than normal conditions will dominate the heart of the fall, can we expect patio season to last right through until November?
Well, it all depends on what you consider "patio weather" to be, but for most people, the answer is no. We could get spoiled with a few days of patio weather in November, but fall is always a changeable season with up and down swings in temperatures, so even a warm fall will have stretches of weather that will drive us indoors.
However, we expect that the periods of warmer than normal weather will outweigh the periods of colder than normal weather. Is there an idea of when the season "flips the switch" and those above seasonal conditions end? Do we fast track right into winter by early December?
There is still a lot of uncertainty as to when the season will "flip the switch. At this point we are targeting mid-November for the pattern change, but pattern changes can readily happen weeks slower or faster than expected — so that really leaves us with anytime during November. So, at this point, we are still unsure as to whether November will end up warmer or colder than normal across Ontario.
What sort of pattern change would lead to an earlier arrival of winter weather this year? And how early is early? In March, most parts of the nation will be anxiously awaiting springlike days, but they will be few and far between. In fact, around the time of the vernal equinox unseasonably cold temperatures may be gripping many parts of the country.
But, we remind everyone that our predictions are long-range and are meant to give you a good idea of what might come your way in the next year. How did our forecast from last year hold up?
If you think that the costal and Ontario Quebec regions are the only important bits to share I will block what I have just agreed to Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba focus on the prairies more. We got most of our snow fall in Feb. Moon Phase Calendar. Planning a trip to Whistler? It should be a good year for it! Please read our Commenting Policy first. Here in Canada, an altered mid-latitude jet stream favours more cold and snow out west, with above-normal precipitation around Southern Ontario but often with bouts of warmer weather.
Read more: Special weather statement issued for southern Ontario due to heavy rains. This year we are watching an early season SSW Sudden Stratospheric Warming event which can be a precursor to a displaced polar vortex. If this were to occur, it would likely be in late November and December, adding to the already chilly pattern we are forecasting around the Great Lakes. Those giant bodies of water are unusually warm for this time of year, thanks to the mild fall and an early Arctic outbreak would mean significant lake effect snow.
The good news with an early start to winter is that ski resorts will be in great shape heading into the holidays with a combination of artificial and natural snow making for some deep powder turns. It has become common in recent years for winters to be two-faced.
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